FNUS75 KRIW 061745
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BATHTUB SPRINGS RX...IA CPC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1135 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN WYOMING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BURN SITE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 40
MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY OVER THE
BURN SITE...WITH SIMILAR THREATS OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
BURN SITE WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13 TO 22 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1400 AND 1500. WINDS
                    WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
                    1700.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    BY 1500.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (176900 KNOT-FT) BY
                    1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) BY 1700...
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) BY 0200.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1800.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-40.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 25 MPH BY 0100. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    AFTER 1800.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND
                    20 MPH BY 0200.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (119300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (15900 KNOT-FT) BY 0100.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-50.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 11 TO 16
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BY 1000. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AT 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (147100 KNOT-FT) BY 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 16 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...ERIC FRANSTED
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090506.BATHT.02/RIW