FNUS73 KAPX 071458 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR EVERGREEN...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1058 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MAY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STEADY RAIN WILL END OVER THE BURN SITE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE. DEVELOPING SUNSHINE WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE BURN SITE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST AT IGNITION TIME...BUT A WINDSHIFT TO THE WEST MAY OCCUR AROUND 600 PM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE HURON SEA-BREEZE COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT IT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL NOT PENETRATE VERY FAR INLAND. BUT IF IT DOES...WINDS WOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. ONE LAST NOTE...IF CLOUDCOVER HANGS AROUND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SOMEWHAT HIGHER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (100 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-74 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 72. RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST 4 TO 10 MPH SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1900) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2200). TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........65 65 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............70 71 RH..............51 47 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 SMOKE DISP......19002200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........70 70 75 80 85 85 85 85 75 75 70 70 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............70 68 66 63 60 58 55 54 52 50 49 48 RH..............44 43 45 48 53 59 66 69 77 80 83 86 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.20 19 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......19001400900 400 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76. RH..................MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........57 54 54 73 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............47 57 73 75 RH..............89 67 37 26 20 FT WIND......W 2G5 W 6G15 W 8G20 W 10G25 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH/JEFF HALBLAUB REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090507.EVERG.01/APX