FNUS75 KBOU 070226 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK BOWL II - MT EVANS SWA...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 816 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT DISPERSION AGAIN BY LATER THURSDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40. MAX HUMIDITY........54%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 17-24 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 800-1800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....67. MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 6-12 MPH. GUSTS TO 22 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 33-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9200-10200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....32. MAX HUMIDITY........81%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 11-17 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-400 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57. MIN HUMIDITY........28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 7000-8000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR CREEK BOWL II - MT EVANS SWA. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/06-20 16 0 54 30 W 20 1 3811 W 29 109927 V 05/06-21 16 0 50 36 W 21 33 2 1 W71 1873 W 24 39589 P 05/06-22 16 0 48 40 W 21 1 1544 W 23 31581 P 05/06-23 16 0 46 45 W 21 1 1216 W 22 23572 P 05/07-00 23 0 45 48 W 20 31 2 1 W71 888 W 21 15564 P 05/07-01 23 0 44 51 W 21 1 833 W 21 14729 P 05/07-02 23 0 42 53 W 21 1 778 W 21 13894 P 05/07-03 23 0 41 54 W 21 33 2 1 W70 724 W 21 13058 P 05/07-04 23 0 41 54 W 21 1 857 W 21 15202 P 05/07-05 23 0 41 53 W 20 1 990 W 21 17345 P 05/07-06 43 0 41 52 W 17 28 2 1 W69 1123 W 20 19488 P 05/07-07 43 0 42 48 W 14 1 2147 W 22 45235 F 05/07-08 43 0 47 40 W 10 1 3171 W 24 70981 G 05/07-09 43 0 51 33 W 8 8 2 1 W67 4195 W 26 96727 G 05/07-10 43 0 56 27 W 9 1 5995 W 30 164900 E 05/07-11 43 0 59 24 W 10 1 7796 W 33 233073 E 05/07-12 45 0 62 21 W 14 22 2 1 W64 9596 W 36 301246 E 05/07-13 45 0 64 20 W 16 1 9781 W 37 312479 E 05/07-14 45 0 65 20 W 17 1 9966 W 37 323712 E 05/07-15 45 0 66 20 W 20 31 2 1 W63 10151 W 38 334945 E 05/07-16 45 0 66 20 W 20 1 9603 W 37 307184 E 05/07-17 45 0 65 22 W 18 1 9054 W 36 279423 E 05/07-18 45 10 62 24 W 17 28 2 2 W61 8506 W 35 251662 E 05/07-19 45 10 59 36 W 15 2 4116 W 36 150569 E 05/07-20 45 10 54 45 W 12 2 2296 W 28 79415 G 05/07-21 45 10 49 55 W 10 10 2 2 W69 477 W 20 8261 P 05/07-22 45 10 41 60 W 10 2 432 W 17 6623 P 05/07-23 45 10 39 63 W 10 2 387 W 14 4986 P 05/08-00 45 0 39 64 W 10 10 2 1 W68 342 W 12 3349 P 05/08-01 45 0 36 70 W 10 1 288 W 10 2734 P 05/08-02 45 0 34 76 W 9 1 235 W 10 2119 P 05/08-03 45 0 32 81 W 9 9 2 1 W66 181 W 9 1504 P 05/08-04 45 0 32 80 W 9 1 193 W 10 1688 P 05/08-05 45 0 32 78 W 9 1 204 W 10 1872 P 05/08-06 45 0 32 78 W 9 9 2 1 W69 215 W 12 2056 P 05/08-07 45 0 32 79 W 9 1 1914 W 20 56341 F 05/08-08 45 0 40 59 W 10 1 3612 W 28 110625 V 05/08-09 45 0 47 46 W 10 10 2 1 W73 5311 W 36 164909 E 05/08-10 45 0 52 36 W 10 1 6031 W 36 187782 E 05/08-11 45 0 55 30 W 10 1 6751 W 36 210655 E 05/08-12 52 10 54 29 W 10 10 2 2 W70 7471 W 36 233527 E 05/08-13 52 10 56 28 W 10 2 7811 W 35 231294 E 05/08-14 52 10 57 29 W 12 2 8152 W 32 229060 E 05/08-15 52 10 55 32 W 12 12 2 2 W66 8492 W 31 226826 E 05/08-16 52 10 53 37 W 12 2 7625 W 29 192994 E 05/08-17 52 10 52 39 W 12 2 6759 W 26 159161 E 05/08-18 52 10 51 43 W 10 10 2 2 W60 5893 W 24 125329 V 05/08-19 52 10 47 50 W 9 2 4403 W 18 86094 G 05/08-20 52 10 42 60 SW 8 2 2913 W 13 46858 F 05/08-21 52 10 38 69 SW 6 6 2 2 W61 1423 W 6 7623 P 05/08-22 52 10 36 74 SW 5 2 1672 W 7 10261 P 05/08-23 52 10 35 76 S 3 2 1920 W 8 12900 P 05/09-00 51 10 35 76 S 2 2 2 1 SW53 2168 SW 8 15538 P 05/09-01 51 10 32 82 S 2 1 1770 SW 7 11886 P 05/09-02 51 10 30 89 S 2 1 1372 SW 7 8234 P 05/09-03 51 10 29 94 S 2 2 2 1 W63 974 SW 6 4581 P 05/09-04 51 10 29 94 S 3 1 1296 SW 8 9782 P 05/09-05 51 10 29 91 S 3 1 1618 SW 10 14982 P 05/09-06 51 20 29 92 S 5 5 2 1 W69 1940 SW 12 20182 P 05/09-07 51 20 29 91 S 5 1 3146 SW 15 48436 F 05/09-08 51 20 36 69 E 6 1 4351 W 18 76690 G 05/09-09 51 20 42 55 E 6 6 2 1 W73 5557 W 22 104944 V 05/09-10 51 20 46 48 E 7 1 6344 W 23 130425 V 05/09-11 51 20 49 46 E 7 1 7130 W 25 155906 E 05/09-12 55 20 48 49 E 7 7 2 1 W67 7917 W 26 181387 E 05/09-13 55 20 50 48 SE 6 1 7934 W 26 182429 E 05/09-14 55 20 50 48 SE 5 1 7950 W 26 183471 E 05/09-15 55 20 49 52 SE 3 3 2 1 W56 7967 W 26 184513 E 05/09-16 55 20 48 56 SE 3 1 7179 W 25 162091 E 05/09-17 55 20 47 58 SE 3 1 6392 W 25 139668 V 05/09-18 55 10 46 61 SE 5 5 2 2 W56 5604 W 24 117245 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090507.BEARC.01/BOU