FNUS73 KAPX 081236
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEFORE AND AFTER LIBERTY...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
836 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS AT THE BURN
SITE FROM SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE COOLER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.
RH..................43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO
                    8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (2200).

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........40     46     46
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     71     73
RH..............43     34     29
20 FT WIND......W 7    W 7    NW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     20
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5
SMOKE DISP......1100   2200   1800

$$
FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090508.BEFOR.01/APX