FNUS75 KBOU 080055 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK BOWL II - MT EVANS SWA...CSFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 655 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXTRA MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE SITE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY. HAVE DECREASED THE SPEEDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE...BASED ON THE OBS GIVEN FROM THE SITE...IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE THE STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ALIGNING WITH THE CREEK DRAINAGE NEARBY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY GO BELOW FREEZING WITH EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES. THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOLER AND SHOWERY PATTERN. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....35. MAX HUMIDITY........59%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 13-23 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 9-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 600-1600 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56. MIN HUMIDITY........24-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4-8 WITH GUSTS TO 14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7600-8600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....29. MAX HUMIDITY........95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1200-1800 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....49. MIN HUMIDITY........46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR CREEK BOWL II - MT EVANS SWA. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/07-18 40 0 62 21 W 22 35 2 1 W66 8410 W 37 269187 E 05/07-19 40 0 60 23 W 20 1 6209 W 30 188720 E 05/07-20 40 0 55 27 W 17 1 4009 W 24 108253 V 05/07-21 40 0 50 33 W 15 24 2 1 W67 1808 W 17 27786 P 05/07-22 40 0 47 38 W 14 1 1438 W 16 20876 P 05/07-23 40 0 45 43 W 13 1 1067 W 14 13966 P 05/08-00 45 0 42 47 W 12 12 2 1 W67 697 W 12 7056 P 05/08-01 45 0 41 52 W 12 1 592 W 12 6133 P 05/08-02 45 0 39 56 W 13 1 488 W 13 5209 P 05/08-03 45 0 37 59 W 13 13 2 1 W71 383 W 13 4285 P 05/08-04 45 0 37 58 W 14 1 455 W 13 5199 P 05/08-05 45 0 37 56 W 14 1 527 W 14 6112 P 05/08-06 45 0 37 54 W 13 13 2 1 W75 599 W 14 7026 P 05/08-07 45 0 39 50 W 12 1 1253 W 15 18141 P 05/08-08 45 0 40 49 W 10 1 1908 W 16 29257 P 05/08-09 45 0 44 44 W 9 9 2 1 W74 2563 W 18 40373 F 05/08-10 45 0 47 38 W 9 1 4303 W 23 102065 V 05/08-11 45 0 50 33 W 8 1 6043 W 29 163758 E 05/08-12 57 10 52 30 W 9 9 2 2 W73 7783 W 33 225451 E 05/08-13 57 10 53 26 W 10 2 8039 W 32 222506 E 05/08-14 57 10 54 24 W 12 2 8294 W 31 219561 E 05/08-15 57 10 54 24 W 12 12 2 2 W61 8550 W 29 216616 E 05/08-16 57 10 54 26 W 12 2 8081 W 25 183473 E 05/08-17 57 10 54 31 W 9 2 7613 W 22 150331 E 05/08-18 67 20 52 41 W 8 8 2 3 W49 7144 W 18 117189 V 05/08-19 67 20 50 43 NW 6 3 6116 W 22 122908 V 05/08-20 67 20 46 51 N 5 3 5211 W 16 79942 G 05/08-21 67 20 42 59 NE 3 3 2 3 W59 4306 SW 10 36977 P 05/08-22 67 20 36 73 E 3 3 3829 SW 9 31742 P 05/08-23 67 20 35 75 E 3 3 3353 S 9 26507 P 05/09-00 86 27 34 77 SE 5 5 2 1 W63 2876 S 8 21272 P 05/09-01 86 27 32 83 SE 6 1 2335 S 10 19509 P 05/09-02 86 27 30 90 S 7 1 1794 S 13 17746 P 05/09-03 86 27 29 95 S 7 7 2 1 W68 1253 S 15 15983 P 05/09-04 86 27 29 94 SW 7 1 1226 SW 15 15536 P 05/09-05 86 27 29 91 SW 7 1 1198 SW 15 15088 P 05/09-06 72 18 29 90 SW 6 6 2 1 W62 1171 SW 15 14641 P 05/09-07 72 18 29 88 SW 5 1 2231 SW 18 43420 F 05/09-08 72 18 36 67 S 3 1 3292 W 23 72199 G 05/09-09 72 18 42 54 S 2 2 2 1 W68 4352 W 26 100978 V 05/09-10 72 18 46 48 S 2 1 4827 W 26 110934 V 05/09-11 72 18 48 46 SE 3 1 5302 W 26 120890 V 05/09-12 71 20 49 48 E 3 3 2 1 W67 5777 W 26 130846 V 05/09-13 71 20 48 50 E 2 1 5649 W 26 127140 V 05/09-14 71 20 49 49 NE 2 1 5520 W 25 123433 V 05/09-15 71 20 49 52 CALM 1 2 1 W54 5391 W 25 119726 V 05/09-16 71 20 48 55 CALM 1 4991 W 23 101139 V 05/09-17 71 20 48 57 E 2 1 4590 W 21 82553 G 05/09-18 67 15 46 61 SE 2 2 2 3 W53 4190 W 17 63966 G 05/09-19 67 15 43 67 SE 2 3 3357 W 13 43345 F 05/09-20 67 15 39 77 SE 2 3 2525 W 7 22724 P 05/09-21 67 15 36 84 SE 2 2 2 3 W60 1692 CALM 2103 P 05/09-22 67 15 34 88 SE 2 3 1534 W 2 2963 P 05/09-23 67 15 33 88 SE 2 3 1375 W 3 3823 P 05/10-00 57 15 33 89 S 2 2 2 3 SW47 1217 W 5 4683 P 05/10-01 57 15 31 92 S 2 3 892 W 5 3499 P 05/10-02 57 15 30 96 SW 3 3 566 SW 5 2316 P 05/10-03 57 15 28 98 SW 3 3 2 3 W59 241 SW 6 1132 P 05/10-04 57 15 29 94 SW 3 3 268 W 6 1503 P 05/10-05 57 15 29 91 SW 3 3 296 W 7 1874 P 05/10-06 51 9 29 90 W 5 5 2 1 W54 323 W 8 2245 P 05/10-07 51 9 29 93 W 6 1 2079 W 18 64273 G 05/10-08 51 9 37 72 W 8 1 3835 W 29 126300 V 05/10-09 51 9 44 57 W 9 9 2 1 W66 5591 W 39 188328 E 05/10-10 51 9 48 46 W 9 1 6921 W 39 234389 E 05/10-11 51 9 51 39 W 9 1 8250 W 39 280450 E 05/10-12 51 9 52 36 W 9 9 2 1 W67 9580 W 39 326512 E 05/10-13 51 9 52 35 W 10 1 9494 W 37 307423 E 05/10-14 51 9 53 34 NW 12 1 9408 W 36 288335 E 05/10-15 51 9 52 35 NW 13 13 2 1 W60 9323 W 33 269246 E 05/10-16 51 9 51 37 NW 12 1 9049 W 30 237389 E 05/10-17 51 9 51 39 N 9 1 8776 W 26 205532 E 05/10-18 60 10 49 43 NE 7 7 2 W58 8503 W 23 173675 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090508.BEARC.01/BOU