FNUS75 KPUB 081649
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MANCHESTER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1049 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
CONTINUE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
AND WILL INCREASE UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FIRE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SLOPES TO THE EAST...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST...BUT
WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FIRE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WHILE INCREASED
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AFTER 1800 AS THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SLOWLY DIMINISHES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE FIRE AREA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY IS FOR HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(48 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND
                    11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF RAIN AND SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35F.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST WINDS 10-14 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    EAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 21 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN SOUTH AROUND 14
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57F.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 9 MPH UNTIL 1700...THEN NORTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

$$
FORECASTER...HALL
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090508.MANCH.01/PUB