FNUS73 KAPX 111305 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR CAMP PUGSLEY...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 905 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 EDT ON MAY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE...BOTH AT IGNITION TIME AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOLAR DRIVEN MIXING AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID RH FALL-OFF THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...GRAND TRAVERSE BAY LAKE BREEZE PENETRATION WILL PREVENT AS RAPID A DROP-OFF AS EXPERIENCED ACROSS FURTHER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RH VALUES NEAR 30 AT IGNITION TIME...AND READINGS REMAINING NEAR THAT VALUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S BY IGNITION TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY-STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE BREEZE PREVENTS FURTHER WARMING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST (AVERAGING 5 TO 8 MPH WITH SOME LIGHT GUSTS) BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHT VEERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FURTHER DEVELOPS. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT NORTH FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BECOME CALM. GOOD RH RECOVERY EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH RH VALUES BACK INTO THE MID 70S BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 57. RH..................30 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6900-8300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1000). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........27 36 36 36 31 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............54 55 56 55 55 RH..............30 29 27 30 30 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 SMOKE DISP......900 900 100010001000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 2 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........31 19 19 19 33 33 WEATHER COV..... AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE FROST FROST 20 FT WIND......NW 6 N 5 NE 2 E 0 E 0 SE 0 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 SMOKE DISP......800 400 100 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...STEVE CROSS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090511.CAMPP.01/APX