FNUS73 KAPX 111416 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR TROUT POND...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1016 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MAY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE...BOTH AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOLAR DRIVEN MIXING AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID RH FALL-OFF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RH READINGS BY IGNITION TIME AROUND 20. HOWEVER...INLAND PENETRATING LAKE HURON BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE SOME RH RECOVERY...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE UPPER 20S BY EVENING. AS FOR THOSE WINDS...EASILY THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST...WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY TOUGH CALL ON EXACT TIMING...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW BURN SITE ON LEADING EDGE OF LAKE BREEZE AT IGNITION TIME...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN STEADILY VEER MORE EASTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS BREEZE PASSES BURN SITE. ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC WIND VALUES IN FORMAT PRODUCT SHOW A STEADY VEERING OF WINDS...IN REALITY...WIND SHIFT MAY BE VERY SUDDEN TO EASTERLY AS LAKE FRONT PASSES. EITHER WAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT...WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTINESS AS LAKE FRONT PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY THIS MORNING... REACHING THE MID 50S BY IGNITION TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN COOLING AFTER LAKE FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT EAST FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. GOOD RH RECOVERY EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. EXPECT RH VALUES BY MORNING TO BE AROUND 80. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 57. RH..................20 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 9100 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1000) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1100). TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........43 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............56 55 RH..............20 22 20 FT WIND DIR..NE N 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 4 SMOKE DISP......1000800 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31. RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 2 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 2 TO 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........38 18 18 18 18 18 WEATHER COV..... AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE FROST FROST TEMP............54 50 42 37 35 33 RH..............25 36 53 67 72 78 20 FT WIND......NE 3 E 4 E 2 SE 0 E 0 E 0 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........18 42 42 42 52 52 WEATHER COV.....AREAS WEATHER TYPE....FROST NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............33 39 50 57 61 61 RH..............82 67 44 35 32 33 20 FT WIND......SE 0 S 1 S 4 S 6 SE 7 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090511.TROUT.03/APX