FNUS72 KMFL 112049
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR CEREMONIAL FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
449 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPOT FORECAST FOR CEREMONIAL ...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
447 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MAY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS STALLED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FIRE. WINDS SHOULD STAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EVEN BECOME
CALM. A CONCERN WILL BE THAT SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF THE FIRE AND WIND GUSTS COULD COME FROM ANY DIRECTION. NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE AREA BUT WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AS
AMPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REACH 90% OR HIGHER. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED.

HOT AND DRY TUESDAY MORNING BUT WITH AN EAST OR WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
AGAIN MAINLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 98.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............71.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................2
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500
MIXING WINDS........SW10
DISPERSION INDEX....40
LVORI...............1

TIME (EDT)      4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM
SKY (%).........60     50     40     36     21     10
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....TSTRM  TSTRM  TSTORM NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     10     10     10     10
TEMP............98     96     88     82     78     76
RH..............29     33     52     69     79     83
20 FT WIND......SW8    SW6    SW 4   SW 4   S 2    S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.SW15   SW10    5      5      5
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW6    SW4    SW 4   SW 4   S 2    S 2
EYE LVL WIND G..SW13   SW8     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....6500   4500   3700   3700   300    200
MIXNG WIND......SW10   SW8    SW 7   SW 7   S 5    S 2
DISP IDX (LDSI).40     20     3      3      2      1
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      4      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     10     10     10     10
LAL.............2      2      2      2      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............71.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 1 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
LVORI...............6.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............73.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 1 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 20 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.

$$
FORECASTER...ROTHFUSS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE

$$

REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE