FNUS73 KAPX 121333
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CALKINS LAKE RD...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST AREA IS THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PRODUCING THE
DRY AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SOUTH 20-FOOT WIND TO INCREASE SLOWLY TODAY TO AROUND 10 MPH.
THIS MAY ALLOW THE MOISTURE FROM GULF OF MEXICO TO POSSIBLY
INCREASE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...THE BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE RANGE
IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........61 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................21 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 9200-9800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1600).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........42  42  42  50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............61  64  64  63
RH..............21  18  17  18
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..8   7   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5
SMOKE DISP......1500140012001000

.TONIGHT...

RH..................MAX 55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
RH..............19     23     32     44     45     49
20 FT WIND......W 5    SW 2   S 6    S 7    S 7    S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.                     10     10     15

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090512.CALKI.01/APX