FNUS73 KAPX 121327
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR JOE S FIRST...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST AREA IS THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PRODUCING THE
DRY AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SOUTH 20-FOOT WIND TO INCREASE SLOWLY TODAY TO AROUND 10 MPH.
THIS MAY ALLOW THE MOISTURE FROM GULF OF MEXICO TO POSSIBLY
INCREASE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...THE BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE RANGE
IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 66.
RH..................48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST
                    5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10
                    TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8900-9900 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1700).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26  20  20  20  42  42  42  50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............49  52  55  58  60  63  63  62
RH..............48  39  32  27  24  18  16  19
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   7   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......800 130016001700150014001200900

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43.
RH..................MAX 57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........50     32     32     30     53     53
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     60     53     48     47     46
RH..............20     24     33     44     47     51
20 FT WIND......NW 4   E 1    SE 5   S 7    S 7    S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.                     10     10     10

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........63        81        81        100
WEATHER COV.....                              CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
TEMP............44        49        57        63
RH..............57        50        42        36
20 FT WIND......S 8G15    S 11G17   S 16G24   S 17G25

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090512.JOESF.01/APX