FNUS75 KBOU 122042 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR NOTCHTOP SAR...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 242 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE...CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. A LEE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 2000. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX THIS EVENING... ALLOWING WINDS TO TRANSITION TO DIURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE AFTER 2400. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62. MIN HUMIDITY........18-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST 27-39 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 48-56 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10200-11200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-33. MAX HUMIDITY........50-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST 26-36 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 17-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-56 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 1200-1800 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2400...THEN POOR UNTIL 0500...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-50. MIN HUMIDITY........18-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 19-29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5200-6200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR NOTCHTOP SAR. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/12-14 32 10 57 24 W 32 1 10534 W 49 452073 E 05/12-15 49 10 58 22 W 33 58 3 1 W54 10923 W 51 478274 E 05/12-16 49 10 58 22 W 33 1 10371 W 53 466350 E 05/12-17 49 10 57 22 W 35 1 9819 W 54 454427 E 05/12-18 49 10 56 23 W 31 49 3 1 W58 9267 W 55 442503 E 05/12-19 49 10 53 25 W 31 1 6871 W 52 322048 E 05/12-20 49 10 49 29 W 32 1 4476 W 47 201593 E 05/12-21 15 10 45 33 W 32 51 3 1 W75 2080 W 44 81138 G 05/12-22 15 0 42 37 W 28 1 1717 W 39 63478 G 05/12-23 15 0 40 41 W 24 1 1354 W 36 45818 F 05/13-00 14 0 38 45 W 22 35 3 1 W67 991 W 32 28157 P 05/13-01 14 0 36 48 W 22 1 971 W 30 26081 P 05/13-02 14 0 35 51 W 21 1 952 W 29 24006 P 05/13-03 14 0 34 52 W 21 32 3 1 W76 933 W 26 21931 P 05/13-04 14 0 33 53 W 20 1 1267 W 28 31911 P 05/13-05 14 0 33 52 W 20 1 1602 W 30 41892 F 05/13-06 38 0 33 52 W 20 31 3 1 W84 1936 W 31 51872 F 05/13-07 38 0 35 43 W 22 1 1434 W 25 35388 P 05/13-08 38 0 36 40 W 23 1 2040 W 29 55032 F 05/13-09 38 0 39 34 W 24 38 3 1 W78 2646 W 32 74676 G 05/13-10 38 0 42 31 W 25 1 3764 W 36 123922 V 05/13-11 38 0 44 28 W 26 1 4882 W 39 173169 E 05/13-12 48 0 45 26 W 26 41 3 1 W81 6000 W 43 222416 E 05/13-13 48 0 46 25 W 26 1 5899 W 40 204680 E 05/13-14 48 0 46 24 W 26 1 5799 W 37 186944 E 05/13-15 48 0 47 24 W 25 41 4 1 W68 5699 W 35 169208 E 05/13-16 48 0 47 24 W 25 1 5034 W 31 137817 V 05/13-17 48 0 46 24 W 24 1 4368 W 26 106426 V 05/13-18 32 0 45 20 W 21 33 5 1 W58 4929 W 33 144104 V 05/13-19 32 0 44 22 W 17 1 4561 W 28 114702 V 05/13-20 32 0 41 24 SW 13 1 4193 SW 23 85300 G 05/13-21 32 0 39 27 SW 10 10 5 1 W62 3825 SW 17 55898 F 05/13-22 32 0 37 29 SW 9 1 3039 SW 15 42071 F 05/13-23 32 0 35 32 SW 9 1 2253 SW 13 28245 P 05/14-00 44 0 34 34 SW 10 10 3 1 W58 1467 SW 12 14418 P 05/14-01 44 0 33 36 SW 10 1 1116 SW 13 11391 P 05/14-02 44 0 32 38 SW 12 1 764 SW 14 8363 P 05/14-03 44 0 31 41 SW 13 16 3 1 W59 413 SW 15 5336 P 05/14-04 44 0 31 42 SW 14 1 351 SW 16 4634 P 05/14-05 44 0 31 44 SW 14 1 288 SW 16 3931 P 05/14-06 38 0 31 45 SW 15 21 3 1 W59 226 SW 17 3229 P 05/14-07 38 0 33 43 SW 17 1 1093 W 23 29593 P 05/14-08 38 0 37 38 W 18 1 1961 W 28 55957 F 05/14-09 38 0 42 33 W 18 30 3 1 W58 2829 W 33 82320 G 05/14-10 38 0 46 30 W 21 1 4209 W 38 145434 V 05/14-11 38 0 49 28 W 22 1 5590 W 41 208547 E 05/14-12 43 0 52 26 W 23 37 3 1 W54 6971 W 45 271660 E 05/14-13 43 0 53 25 W 23 1 7740 W 44 288951 E 05/14-14 43 0 54 25 W 23 1 8509 W 41 306241 E 05/14-15 43 0 55 25 W 23 37 3 1 W54 9279 W 40 323531 E 05/14-16 43 0 55 26 W 23 1 9109 W 41 324687 E 05/14-17 43 0 55 27 W 23 1 8940 W 43 325844 E 05/14-18 43 0 54 29 W 22 35 3 1 W67 8770 W 44 327000 E 05/14-19 43 0 52 31 W 21 1 6900 W 38 243712 E 05/14-20 43 0 49 34 W 18 1 5030 W 33 160423 E 05/14-21 43 0 46 38 W 16 26 3 1 W60 3160 W 28 77135 G 05/14-22 43 0 43 42 W 15 1 2495 W 24 57728 F 05/14-23 43 0 42 44 NW 14 1 1829 W 21 38321 P 05/15-00 63 0 40 47 NW 14 18 3 1 W63 1164 W 17 18915 P 05/15-01 63 0 39 49 NW 14 1 1040 W 18 16890 P 05/15-02 63 0 37 52 W 14 1 915 W 18 14865 P 05/15-03 63 0 36 53 W 14 18 3 1 W70 791 W 18 12841 P 05/15-04 63 0 36 54 W 16 1 751 W 20 12633 P 05/15-05 63 0 36 55 W 18 1 712 W 20 12426 P 05/15-06 63 16 36 55 W 20 31 3 3 W67 673 W 21 12218 P 05/15-07 63 16 37 53 W 21 3 1636 W 24 40581 F 05/15-08 63 16 38 49 W 20 3 2598 W 28 68944 G 05/15-09 63 16 40 45 W 20 31 3 3 W54 3562 W 31 97306 G 05/15-10 63 16 43 42 W 18 3 4165 W 33 124012 V 05/15-11 63 16 44 39 W 18 3 4768 W 36 150717 E 05/15-12 66 16 45 37 W 18 30 3 3 W53 5371 W 38 177423 E 05/15-13 66 20 46 37 W 18 3 5645 W 38 185465 E 05/15-14 66 20 46 37 W 17 3 5918 W 38 193506 E 05/15-15 66 20 47 37 W 16 25 3 3 W51 6192 W 38 201548 E 05/15-16 66 20 47 37 W 15 3 6009 W 33 171946 E 05/15-17 66 20 46 37 W 12 3 5827 W 29 142344 V 05/15-18 66 20 45 40 W 9 9 3 3 W47 5645 W 23 112742 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...MARK PITA REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090512.NOTCH.01/BOU