FNUS71 KCTP 121630 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR OAK BURN 09 PART II...U.S. FOREST SERVICE/ANF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1230 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1315 EDT ON MAY 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA MARYLAND BORDER ON FRIDAY...THEN RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE NW. 10 HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT...SUPPORTING A LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER TODAY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 60. RH..................32 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............22 24 22 18 14 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................56 58 59 60 59 RH..................31 29 27 26 27 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......8 8 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR...NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD...9 8 7 6 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30. RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............10 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 7 12 16 WEATHER COV......... WID WID WID WID WEATHER TYPE........ FST FST FST FST TEMP................56 53 49 45 42 39 37 35 34 32 31 31 RH..................30 35 41 48 54 61 66 69 72 82 90 94 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW N NE NE E SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD......7 6 5 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR...NW N N N NE E E E E SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD...5 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 5 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68. RH..................MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTH AROUND 26 MPH. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............20 24 26 26 26 26 26 26 64 64 64 64 WEATHER COV.........WID WID SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........FST FST RW RW RW RW TEMP................33 36 41 48 55 61 64 65 66 67 67 67 RH..................90 79 67 53 43 36 33 32 31 31 31 32 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......2 3 7 9 12 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 15 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 TRANSP WIND DIR...SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD...6 8 10 13 16 18 21 22 23 24 25 26 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT REQUESTED BY...GARY KOLESAR TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090512.OAKBU.02/CTP