FNUS73 KMPX 121155
FWSMPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTHVC...AFTON STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
BY THE 10 AM CDT IGNITION TIME...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE
40 PERCENT...AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL
MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
                    OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 69.
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 17 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (3500-47500) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (213500-218600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700-7400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 18 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 41 TO 43 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............55     62     66     68     69     68
RH..............55     52     48     43     42     43
20 FT WIND......S 10   S 15   S 16   S 18   S 17   S 16
20 FT WIND GUST.15     25     25     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....5      4      3      3      4      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30
                    PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (182300-215000) DECREASING TO GOOD TO
                    EXCELLENT (49100-92700).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69.
RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (44400-88800) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (102600-124700) EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100-6200 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25 TO 33 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 23
                    TO 26 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...SCHMIT
REQUESTED BY...GENE GROEBNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090512.SOUTH.01/MPX