FNUS73 KMPX 141123
FWSMPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST PICNIC...AFTON STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
623 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0630 CDT ON MAY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AND SLOWLY DECREASE
THE WIND SPEEDS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 61.
RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 22 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 7 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (72400-119400) DECREASING TO FAIR TO
                    EXCELLENT (25500-67900) IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 33 TO 40 MPH BECOMING WEST 8 TO 14
                    MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............45     51     55     58     59     60
RH..............65     53     46     40     39     36
20 FT WIND......NW 20  NW 18  NW 14  W 12   W 12   W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.30     30     25     20     20     15
HAINES INDEX....2      3      4      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 44.
RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1700-12500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 8 TO
                    16 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 66.
RH..................MIN 52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW TO OR MODERATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5500-52100) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (66900-101000) LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-4700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 17 TO 26 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 23
                    TO 29 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...RICHARDSON
REQUESTED BY...GENE GROEBNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090514.EASTP.01/MPX