FNUS75 KGJT 150312
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PACK CREEK UNIT 5...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
912 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

  ***NOTE: BRIAN, YOUR ORIGINAL SPOT REQUEST WAS FOR PERIOD 3
           ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY BE FOR SATURDAY. I
           CHANGED THE PERIOD TO THE FIRST PERIOD, FRIDAY, WHEN I
           PRODUCED THE SPOT. I ADDED A SHORT OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY,
           WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN UTAH EARLY TODAY. WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN THE
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 1400, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE TERRAIN DOMINATED. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MODERATE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE SMOKE DISPERSAL, THOUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE
A FEW STRONGER WIND GUST FROM THE WEST IN HIGHER AREAS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...REMAINING WARM AND DRY. SOME WARMING ALOFT
AND A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASE WILL HOLD DOWN VERTICAL MIXING A BIT
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. STILL,
THE CLEARING INDEX SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 600 AND 750.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 0930, THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. HIGHER EXPOSED AREAS
                    AFTER 1200 BECOMING WEST 5-10 MPH WITH A FEW
                    GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......950.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AFTER 0930, INCREASING TO 10500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 0930, THEN
                    BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...CHRIS CUOCO
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN MATTOX
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090515.PACKC.01/GJT