FNUS75 KGJT 142026
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SWEETWATER RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
226 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH WESTERN COLORADO AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CREEP OVER THE DIVIDE BRINGING VIRGA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BURN SITE. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. THIS IMPULSE REPRESENTS THE END TO THE RECENT
PATTERN OF PERSISTENT STRONG ZONAL FLOW. A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WEST.


.FRIDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%)...WITH SOME VIRGA DEVELOPMENT.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AND INCREASING TO
                    4-8 MPH. WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL OCCASIONALLY
                    MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
                    A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH. VIRGA AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING EXCELLENT DURING
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS. A
                    THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 2200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT). BETTER MIXING
                    NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1100...
                    THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH. AFTER
                    1400 BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. AT TIMES
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY TO WEST OR NORTHWEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...REBITZKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090515.SWEET.02/GJT