FNUS75 KGJT 151620
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR WAPA-TRI STATE RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0945 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING'S WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS USHERED IN A
PATTERN CHANGE AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT
HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. IN SPITE OF THE LIGHTER FLOW...SMOKE DISPERSAL
WILL STILL REACH INTO THE GOOD CATEGORY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD
DAYTIME WARMING AND DEEP MIXING.


.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) A FEW CUMULUS THROUGH
                    THE DAY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50% HIGH
                    CLOUDS) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    3-6 MPH AFTER 1100. OVER FLATTER TERRAIN
                    NEAR RIDGETOPS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME
                    NORTHWEST 3-6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD AFTER 1300.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 8 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50% HIGH CLOUDS).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38043 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........47-52%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-6 MPH
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLY 6 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) EARLY...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) BY LATE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AND INCREASING
                    TO 4-9 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1130...THEN BECOMING GOOD BY MID
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10 MPH BY MID
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...DAN HUISJEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090515.WAPAT.01/GJT