FNUS72 KMLB 150917
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRAGONFLY FIRE...DIVISION OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
517 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0458 EDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING SMOKE/PATCHY FOG NEAR OR DOWNWIND
OF THE EXISTING WILDFIRE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION
(FUMIGATION TYPE PLUME) AS MIXING HEIGHTS DECREASE TO THEIR
LOWEST TOWARD SUNRISE. BY MID MORNING 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT
WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE AS THE OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS ERODE AND STRONGER
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN.

ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TO SPARK NEW WILDFIRES
DUE TO DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR.

ANY AREAS NEAR THE WILDFIRE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR
OVERNIGHT MAY BE PRONE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH POOR DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON LOCAL ROADWAYS DUE TO SMOKE/PATCHY FOG TRAPPED
BENEATH LATE NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INVERSION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG VERY EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....57.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY                         SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG                         RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............73  73  73  77  80  83  84  84  85  85  85  85
RH..............94  94  84  71  65  57  53  53  50  51  51  53
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   5   6   9   12  14  15  15  15  15  15
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  15  15  15  20  22  22  22  22  22

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-700 FT AGL IN
                    THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............6...BUT COULD BE HIGHER LOCALLY (MICROSCALE).

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MORNING SHOWER.
    A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....64.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...JOHN KERN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090515.DRAGO.01/MLB