FNUS72 KMLB 160908
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRAGONFLY FIRE...FHP & VOLUSIA CTY FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
508 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0448 EDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED (LOCALLY)
NEAR OR DOWNWIND OF ONGOING FIRE DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND SMOKE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE INVERSION. ABOUT AN HOUR OR
SO AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...STRONGER WINDS WILL START MIXING
DOWN AND BEGIN TO DISPERSE THE SMOKE/FOG MIXTURE.

TODAY...LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TRANSPORTING THE SMOKE PLUME TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE FORECAST...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STRIKE WITH THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD IT DEVELOP NEAR THE WILDFIRE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/CALM
OVER THE INTERIOR LATE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. SMOKE
NEAR OR DOWNWIND OF THE EXISTING WILDFIRE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY
...20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HAVE QUICKLY
INCREASED AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AS THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION
ERODES AND STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING BECOMING EAST 9 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
                    STRONGER GUSTS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-5000 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....47.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............72  72  72  76  79  82  84  85  87  86  86  85
RH..............87  87  90  76  69  61  57  53  48  51  53  55
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   3   6   7   9   10  12  13  14  15  15
20 FT WIND GUST.5       5           10  15  15  15  20  20  20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-2000 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.
LVORI...............7...BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER (MICROSCALE).

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....41.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...SGT J L CROSBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090516.DRAGO.01/MLB