FNUS72 KMLB 170957
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRAGONFLY FIRE...DIVISION OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
557 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0530 EDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THIS WILL SLIGHTLY DELAY THE SEA BREEZE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STILL PASS THE FIRE
SITE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 15 MPH.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES PROBABLY BEING WEST OF
THE BURN SITE.

TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE AREA.  MORE CLOUDINESS SHOULD EXIST THOUGH AND LIMIT THE
CHANCES FOR FOG.  STILL...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD BECOME
WELL ESTABLISHED DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BEING
NEARBY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO DISPERSION WORSE THAN FORECAST AND A
LITTLE HIGHER LVORI INDEX.

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
                    DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING THEN A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4200 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....44.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............72     73     79     83     85     84     81
RH..............92     87     69     59     50     55     65
20 FT WIND......SE 2   SE 3   SE 4   SE 8   SE 11  SE 13  SE 13
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      5      10     15     15     15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1900 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.
LVORI...............6.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-3800 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....42.

$$
FORECASTER...LASCODY
REQUESTED BY...JOHN KERN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090517.DRAGO.01/MLB