FNUS75 KGJT 180358
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR WAPA-TRI STATE RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
958 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS TODAY. THAT MEANS VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT BUT WARMER MAX
TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND UNSTABLE SO SMOKE
SHOULD LOFT HIGH.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TUESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES
EAST SO THE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SITE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, AND INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO
THE AREA...CAUSING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (40-50% CIRRUS).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 0900, THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-7 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900, THEN FAIR. IMPROVING TO GOOD
                    BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AFTER 0900, INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 0900, THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTH 8 MPH, SHIFT GRADUALLY TO
                    THE SOUTHWEST 8 MPH AFTER 1200.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......AFTER 2100, DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....AFTER 2100: POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AFTER 2100 LOWERING TO 1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....AFTER 2100 DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 0930, THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-7 MPH. AFTER 1300 OCCASIONAL
                    SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 7-12 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0930, THEN FAIR. IMPROVING TO VERY
                    GOOD BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AFTER 0930, INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 0930, THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 7 MPH. AFTER 1100 BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 17 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...CHRIS CUOCO
REQUESTED BY...DAN HUISJEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090518.WAPAT.01/GJT