FNUS72 KMLB 181142
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRAGONFLY FIRE...DIVISION OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
742 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0655 EDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE BURN SITE WILL BUILD
SOUTH TODAY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING BUT AS THE FRONT PASSES THE BURN SITE EXPECT SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND SMOKE EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 7
                    TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 14 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 21 TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....50.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....            LKY WID WID WID WID WID WID WID
WEATHER TYPE....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............70  71  72  74  74  73  72  71  70  69  68
RH..............93  90  84  81  76  81  84  87  90  93  93
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   8   8   8   13  13  13  14  14
20 FT WIND GUST.            10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 17 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....16.
LVORI...............5.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3000 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 17 TO 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....52.
LVORI...............1.

$$
FORECASTER...WEITLICH
REQUESTED BY...JOHN KERN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090518.DRAGO.01/MLB