FNUS73 KMPX 181141
FWSMPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR F-44-56...OTHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
641 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM CANADA THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN LATER THIS MORNING AND FOR WINDS TO BECOME
STRONG. WILL SEE S TO SW WINDS QUICKLY PICK UP IN STRENGTH THIS MORNING...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. THE GUSTS WILL BE
STRONGEST THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OF A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BURN SITE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING...AND WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 20 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 18 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 2.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (22100-61600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1900 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 24 TO 31 MPH BECOMING WEST 14 TO 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............58  63  66  69  72  74  75  76  76  75  73  68
RH..............57  50  45  42  38  37  36  36  36  37  40  45
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   NW  N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..16  16  18  20  21  21  20  18  15  14  12  8
20 FT WIND GUST.30  25  28  30  25  25  25  25  25  20  20  15
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42.
RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (3000-29100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 20 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND
                    29 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 66.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (35700-76300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 24 TO 30 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...GRIESINGER
REQUESTED BY...MATT GRAEVE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090518.F4456.01/MPX


SKY (%) LEGEND
CLR = CLEAR
MCR = MOSTLY CLEAR
PC = PARTLY CLOUDY
MC = MOSTLY CLOUDY
CDY = CLOUDY