FNUS75 KMSO 181417
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAWMILL CYR EMB 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
817 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY CAUSING
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. YOUR FIRE IS ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
BEST INSTABILITY. THE INVERSION APPEARS TO BREAK FOR YOUR FIRE BY
MID AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS WHEN THE BEST TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITIES
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE COLD
FRONT TO SWING THROUGH YOUR FIRE AROUND NOON TOMORROW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....
          BOTTOM....80-83.
             TOP....72-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 3-6 MPH BECOMING WEST 5-10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 25 MPH.

TIME (MDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
SKY (%).........56  52  52  52  52  52  52  59  59  59  59  59
WEATHER COV.....                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                TRW TRW TRW TRW TRW TRW
TEMP............65  71  73  76  80  80  79  77  74  71  65  63
RH..............40  33  27  25  18  15  16  18  23  26  35  41
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..2   4   4   4   8   10  10  9   8   7   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  10  20  20  20  20  15  15  10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........
          BOTTOM....75-80 PERCENT.
          TOP.......25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-11 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    VARIABLE 3-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
                    LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH BECOMING
                    WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...JEFFREY HAYES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090518.SAWMI.03/MSO