FNUS75 KMSO 182149
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR KELLY S RIDGE HFR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
349 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE BURN AREA TOMORROW BETWEEN 1000 AND 1300 MDT.
IN THE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITIONS...INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BURN LOCATION WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WESTERLY
SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE UPPER REACHES OF THE BURN.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
                    SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....BOTTOM 70-75...TOP 58-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........BOTTOM 27-32 PERCENT...42-47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 3-7 MPH BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 25 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....BOTTOM 37-42...TOP 34-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO WEST 5-10 MPH
                    AROUND SUNSET.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....BOTTOM 70-75...TOP 60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........BOTTOM 24-29 PERCENT...TOP 33-38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...VIA
REQUESTED BY...ART TRAHAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090519.KELLY.01/MSO