FNUS73 KPAH 191224
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUSH PILES...USFWS, CRAB ORCHARD NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
724 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0745 CDT ON MAY 19.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE HUMID OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF...THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THERE IS AT LEAST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.
RH..................71 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 1 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1100 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............48  54  60  64  68  71  73  75  76  76  75  74
RH..............71  52  44  38  34  31  29  28  27  27  29  30
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..1   1   1   1   2   2   2   3   4   4   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 1.1 2.2 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.5   5   3   3   3   5   6   7   8   8   8   7
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFOPADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...RAYMOND J  PARRISH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090519.BRUSH.01/PAH