FNUS75 KRIW 190012
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MAKI CREEK...BLM RSD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
612 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE BURN
AREA.  SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING.  THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE WYOMING AND SALT RANGES...WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE BURN AREA.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.  THE UPSLOPE...EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
                    BATTLE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
                    AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WIN OUT.
                    THIS SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CONVECTIVE CELLS
                    MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM MDT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST
                    POTENTIAL TO AROUND 40 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (23700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (170000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 18
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (121700 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (20000 KNOT-FT) AFTER 10 PM MDT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (26600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (84500
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...RICHARD PUTNAM
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090519.MAKIC.01/RIW