FNUS73 KFGF 201429 FWSFGF SPOT FORECAST FOR AGASSIZ...USFWS AGASSIZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 929 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...CREATING A LARGE TEMPERATURES RANGE. WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE EIGHTIES IN THE WARM REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH COOLER WEATHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS BURN IS THAT IT IS SITTING RIGHT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN TURNING MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE IGNITION TIME OF 1100. IF THIS FRONT DOES NOT MOVE AS THOUGHT...THE LONGER THE WINDS STAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...THE BETTER THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO GET STRONGER AND GUSTY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY LOOKS COOLER AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68. MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ***BIG UNCERTAINTY HERE...PLEASE SEE NOTE IN DISCUSSION ABOVE *** MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-2700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........70 71 72 73 73 73 72 71 70 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............55 59 62 65 65 64 63 62 61 RH..............65 63 58 55 54 50 48 49 51 20 FT WIND DIR..NE N NW NW NW NW N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 20 15 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........67 61 52 45 40 38 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 57 53 50 46 43 RH..............52 59 67 73 74 77 20 FT WIND......N 9 N 8 NW 8 NW 8 NW 8 NW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 23 TO 28 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........36 35 35 32 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............42 49 55 58 RH..............78 52 39 35 20 FT WIND......NW 11G15 NW 14G20 W 14G25 NW 14G20 $$ FORECASTER...NG REQUESTED BY...LARRY ANDERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090520.AGASS.01/FGF