FNUS73 KBIS 211402
FWSBIS

SPOT FORECAST FOR LONETREE WMA 3...NDGFD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MONTANA
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING 5 TO 15 MPH WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

I HAVE TWO SPOTS FOR NEARLY THE SAME AREA. INFORMATION ON
TRANSPORT WINDS AND THE INVERSION SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE FOR BOTH
SITES. FROM OUR LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHES
43 DEGREES. BY IGNITION TIME...THE MIXING HEIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 3500 FEET WITH A NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WIND OF 10 MPH. BY MAX
HEATING THE MIXING HEIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 7500 FEET WITH A WEST
TRANSPORT WIND OF 10 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY AS THE OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST THIS MORNING TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSION IS
EXCELLENT BUT I THINK THIS IS BASED ON TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING
HEIGHT AT MAX HEATING...SO DISPERSION MAY BE LESS THAN EXCELLENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 65.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
                    MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING WEST LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
LAL.................1.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 66.
RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
LAL.................2.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...HAMILTON
REQUESTED BY...RANDY LITTLEFIELD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090521.LONET.02/BIS