FNUS73 KMQT 211946 CCA FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...DNR...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 345 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1439 EDT ON MAY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED SPOT FORECAST FOR THE BLACK RIVER FALLS FIRE BY 0600 EDT ON MAY 22. .DISCUSSION...RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WITH VALUES RISING TO NEAR 95 PERCENT. FRIDAY WILL BE A SUNNY AND DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PENETRATING INLAND TO THE FIRE SITE. IT IS LIKELY THAT AT SOME POINT BY MID AFTERNOON THAT THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE SITE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. .REST OF TODAY... TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........77 65 52 38 25 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE...... TEMP..............56 58 60 61 63 RH................68 60 53 48 44 GENERAL WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..9 9 10 10 10 GENERAL WIND GST..20 20 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100...354 463 548 622 648 MIX HGT (KFT).....2.5 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.1 HAINES INDEX......3 3 4 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 33 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 22 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (290) DECREASING TO POOR (0) BY LATE EVENING. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1300 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS LATE. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%)...........14 9 6 2 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 WEATHER COV....... PTY PTY PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE...... FST FST FST FST TEMP..............60 57 51 46 45 43 41 40 38 36 36 36 RH................46 51 61 72 75 78 84 83 89 94 95 95 GENERAL WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N N GENERAL WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100...644 505 290 60 0 15 50 48 45 43 3 0 MIX HGT (KFT).....3.6 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX......5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 IN THE MID AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (524) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (702) LATE. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-6800 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........3 5 9 11 14 19 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............37 50 60 64 65 65 RH..............88 51 31 23 21 23 GENERAL WIND....NE 5 NE 5 SE 6 S 9 NE 9 NE 10 GENERAL GUST.... 10 18 18 17 VINDX KT-FT/100.28 148 222 409 524 667 MIX HGT (FT)....300 3000 5500 6800 6500 6100 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...MRD REQUESTED BY...STAMPFLY CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090521.BLACK.01/MQT