FNUS75 KTFX 231840
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOPLEY UNITS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1240 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON MAY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING. MOISTURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FURTHER
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LESS INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER THE FIRE AREA...WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE
25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE TODAY WITH VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY...BUT
HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 40 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.  COULSTON

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 1500 MDT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500 MDT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0000 MDT.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................55 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    5 TO 15 MPH AFTER 1200 MDT.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200 MDT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........LIGHT WINDS.

$$
FORECASTER...COULSTON
REQUESTED BY...JIM HOMISON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090523.HOPLE.01/TFX