FNUS75 KRIW 271446
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRADLEY MOUNTAIN...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
846 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0755 MDT ON MAY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN AS
WELL AND WILL BRING IN SOME LIMITED MOISTURE.  THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH INSTABILITY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WESTERN WYOMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
AS WELL...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS WELL.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
GUSTY...ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...THE HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW-PACK MELT-RATE WILL
ACCELERATE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CUMULUS BUILD UPS (50-60 PERCENT).
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF  RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON DEVELOPING BETWEEN 1400 AND 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75 AT 5600 FEET AND 57 AT 8900 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT AT 5600 FEET AND 40 PERCENT AT 8900 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
                    UPSLOPE 5 TO 10 MPH BY 0930. WINDS BECOMING UPVALLEY
                    FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH BY 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY
                    1100.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 8
                    TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (68700
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43 WITHIN THE THERMAL BELT BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.
                    OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE 35 TO 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........RANGING FROM 61 PERCENT BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET
                    TO UP TO 85 PERCENT AT 5600 FEET AND 8900 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE FROM THE NORTH AT 4-7 MPH BECOMING EAST
                    NORTHEAST DOWNVALLEY 5 TO 8 MPH AFTER 0600.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (3700
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78 AT 5600 FEET AND 60 AT 8900 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT AT 5600 FEET AND 30 PERCENT AT 8900 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
                    UPSLOPE 6 TO 11 MPH BY 0900. WINDS BECOMING UPVALLEY
                    FROM THE SOUTHWEST 11 TO 19 MPH BY 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 12
                    TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (87000
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...KIRK STROM
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090527.BRADL.01/RIW