FNUS73 KAPX 111445
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAULY BLACK...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON JUNE 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BURN SITE WHICH MIGHT PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE CLOUDY/CLEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH AS WELL...ALTHOUGH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BEFORE THE EARLY EVENING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
RH..................63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 2 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-2600
                    FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR (100).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........82  80  70  58  50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............60  60  61  61  61
RH..............63  58  53  51  51
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2   3   4   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   10  10  10
SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100

.TONIGHT...

TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
TEMP............60     57     51     48     45     44
RH..............53     59     74     86     96     100
20 FT WIND......NE 6   N 4    NW 4   NW 4   NW 4   W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     5

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...STEVE CROSS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090611.PAULY.01/APX