FNUS72 KMLB 121200
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR PRESCOTT WILDFIRE...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0735 EDT ON JUNE 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MUCH OF
THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WIND FLOW TODAY
...AND THE FACT THAT VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE DEEP WITH PLENTY
OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME VARIABLE AROUND
THE BURN SITE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT...WITH A LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO SOUTHEAST VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED...
AND OCCUR ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS (EAST-WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
OR A SEA-LAKE BREEZE COLLISION. WHILE THE FORECAST IS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE (ABOUT 10%) FROM 1 PM ONWARD (ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE) CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER
(STILL ONLY 10-20%) BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

WILL CALL WITH ANY UPDATES IF ANY THUNDERSTORM CELLS DEVELOP
NEAR THE BURN SITE AS THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS MOST OF
                    THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PASSAGE
                    FORECAST AFTER 5 PM...WITH WINDS COMING
                    AROUND TO SOUTHEAST LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....13.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                        TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............79  83  87  91  93  96  96  96  95  93  91  89
RH..............86  82  72  61  54  49  44  43  46  49  53  58
20 FT WIND DIR..WSW WSW SW  SW  SW  SW  SSW SSW SSW VRB VRB  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   8
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   9

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING CLEAR. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-2200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
LVORI...............8.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....36.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...CRISTALDI
REQUESTED BY...PAUL MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090612.PRESC.01/MLB