FNUS74 KEPZ 191550
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WILLOW...USFS GILA NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
950 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0936 MDT ON JUNE 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING...TRAILING
BACK INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHILE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO
SIT OVER NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE STILL
CONCENTRATED EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...HAS MANAGED TO GET PULLED BACK
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY THE UPPER LOW.  THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE AT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GILA REGION. STILL...
THIS IS HARDLY A SLAM-DUNK...AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN.  THE UPPER LOW WILL GET KICKED OUT OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND AN ISOLATED STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR SATURDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SURFACE MINIMUM
RH VALUES ABOVE 15% THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ANOTHER SHOT IN
THE ARM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY COME INTO PLAY SUNDAY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTHEAST OF BAJA GETS PULLED UP INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

NOTE WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WIND DIRECTION LOOKS A LITTLE
SHIFTY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN GILA...AND A WIND SHIFT LINE BISECTING THE REGION.
BE SURE TO SEND FEEDBACK IF ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE WIND OCCUR.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 3-5 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY...THEN
                    SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST 4-6 MPH BY
                    LATE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 THROUGH 1300...THEN 2.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH.
LAL.................2


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 IN THE MORNING...THEN 1.



$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...INCIDENT IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WFU
.TAG 20090619.WILLO.01/EPZ