FNUS75 KGJT 222256
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE CREEK...MANTI-LA SAL NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
456 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON JUNE 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET.
THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD
COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM. VIRGA AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS ARE A GREATER THREAT THAN SHOWERS. AS PER
OUR DISCUSSION LAST WEEK...SHOWERS ARE LOOKING LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

THE EVENING SHIFT WILL LOOK AT THE LATEST MODELS AND UPDATE THIS
FORECAST IF NEEDED BEFORE MORNING.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8500 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......100.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL OR LESS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60%). ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......INVERSION BREAKING AROUND 1000. THEN SOUTHWEST
                    3-8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200. THEN EXCELLENT.
CLEARING INDEX......LESS THAN 500 UNTIL 1200...THEN RISING TO 1050.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN RISING TO 12000.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...MOAB DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090623.BLUEC.01/GJT