FNUS75 KGJT 242256
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PACK CREEK...MANTI LA SAL NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
456 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1248 MDT ON JUNE 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WAS 140% OF NORMAL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BOTH
NIGHTS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS LATE FRIDAY AND COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO INCREASE ON FRIDAY ADDING
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORM COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING/NORTHERN COLORADO. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BUT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES MAY REACH THE FIRE
SITE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 2-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......950.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. AFTER 1400 BECOMING 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN RISING TO
                    11000 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........48-53%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......250...EXCEPT 1000+ IN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL...EXCEPT HIGHER IN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 17 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN WIDESPREAD
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AS HIGH
                    AS 50 MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 8000 FT AGL...HIGHER NEAR STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 49-59.
HIGHS 76-86. SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 50-60.
HIGHS 80-90. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 49-59. HIGHS 82-92. WEST WINDS 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...MOAB DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090624.PACKC.02/GJT