FNUS74 KEPZ 261820
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR JORNADA CHEMICAL...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1220 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1150 MDT ON JUNE 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER THROUGH
TODAY...FAVORING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL AND
GILA REGIONS.  ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY OUT-RULED.  MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.


THIS EVENING...
TEMPERATURE ON THE RANGE SHOULD DROP BELOW 90 F BETWEEN 1830 AND 1930
MDT (6:30 TO 7:30 PM).  SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THAT TIME WILL BE HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND YOUR CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 6 MPH...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW
AFTER 9 PM.  ONE CAVEAT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GILA AND BOOTHEEL REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORMS MAY PUSH AS FAR WEST AS THE ORGAN/SAN ANDRES RANGE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  THIS WOULD DELAY MEETING THE
WIND THRESHOLD UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURE REACHING 90F AROUND NOON MDT..DROPPING AROUND 1930
(7:30 PM).  NORTH WINDS WILL SURPASS 6 MPH AROUND NOON...BUT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND HOVER NEAR THE THRESHOLD ALL DAY.  WINDS LIKELY
TO DROP BELOW 6 MPH BETWEEN 1900 AND 2000 (7PM AND 8PM).


GENERAL FORECAST PARAMETERS FOLLOW...

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
MAX HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...RYAN WHITEAKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090626.JORNA.01/EPZ