FNUS74 KEPZ 271929
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR JORNADA CHEMICAL...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
129 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1305 MDT ON JUNE 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION..
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN NMEX IS CHANNELING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD CONCENTRATED MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL AREAS. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
PROVIDING MORE FOCUS AND INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASE STORM CHANCES
ALONG WITH AREAL COVERAGE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION
WARM AND MINIMIZE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.



.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
MAX HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH SOME GUSTS
                    15+ MPH  WEST SLOPES SAN ANDRES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH GUSTS 18 MPH. STRONGER GUSTS
                    AT TIMES WEST SLOPES MTNS AND CANYON OUTLETS.


.SUNDAY TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: MOST PROBABLE TEMPS > 90F 100 PM TO 700 PM
        MOST PROBABLE WINDS > 8 MPH 1100 AM TO MIDNIGHT.
NOTE WITH BACKDOOR FRONT..EAST WINDS ARE OFTEN STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST SLOPES
AND CANYONS .



$$
FORECASTER...NOVLAN
REQUESTED BY...RYAN WHITEAKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090627.JORNA.01/EPZ