FNUS72 KMLB 281248
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DISNEY WILDERNESS PRESERVE...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
848 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JUNE 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL NOT ONLY KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT BUT ALSO MOVE WEATHER QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY. AS THE SURFACE INVERSIONS BURN OFF AROUND 10
AM LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 12 MPH BY NOON
TIME. LOCAL FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEATHER RADARS WERE
NOT DETECTING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CHANGE BY LATE MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE WEATHER TOWARD THE BURN SITE. MELBOURNE
WILL BE MONITORING THE RADARS AND GIVE THE FIELD A HEADS UP OF
APPROACHING STORMS AND SHOWERS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....66.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............85  87  88  89  88  88  87  85  84  82  81  80
RH..............72  65  61  57  59  59  61  65  70  74  77  82
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..10  12  13  13  13  13  12  10  9   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.    15  15  15  15  15  15      10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............6.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....41.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...WIMMER
REQUESTED BY...NEIL CLINEMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090628.DISNE.01/MLB