FNUS72 KMLB 281225
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR KP 14...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON JUNE 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL NOT ONLY KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT BUT ALSO MOVE WEATHER QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY. AS THE SURFACE INVERSIONS BURN OFF AROUND 10
AM LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 12
MPH BY NOON TIME. LOCAL FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH DURING
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEATHER RADARS WERE NOT DETECTING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CHANGE BY LATE MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
HEATS UP AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE WEATHER TOWARD THE BURN
SITE. MELBOURNE WILL BE MONITORING THE RADARS AND GIVE THE FIELD A
HEADS UP OF APPROACHING STORMS AND SHOWERS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....68.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............82  85  86  87  88  88  87  86  85  84  82  80
RH..............88  77  67  65  63  63  65  67  70  74  79  82
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7   9   10  12  13  13  13  13  12  10  9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.    10      15  15  15  15  15  15      10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-2400 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............7.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....57.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...WIMMER
REQUESTED BY...PAUL MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090628.KP14_.01/MLB