FNUS74 KEPZ 051620
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR JORNADA CHEMICAL...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1025 MDT ON JULY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WILL
RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING
THE LOWLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
YET AGAIN.  A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR IN THE
COMING WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND
EXPANDS...SUPPRESSING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...AND BRINGING
WARMER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO THE AREA.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT JUST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


.TODAY...
TEMPERATURE AT/ABOVE 90 BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM MDT.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONGER NNE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH POSSIBLE AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.  THEN BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 2 PM.

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-92.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.

.TONIGHT...
SEE ABOVE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS.

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH.

.MONDAY...
TEMPERATURE AT/ABOVE 90 BETWEEN 130 PM AND 630 PM MDT.
WINDS AT/ABOVE 8 MPH BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM MDT.

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....92-97.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...RYAN WHITEAKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090706.JORNA.01/EPZ