FNUS72 KMLB 060959
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP I1 2 G2...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE,JONATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
559 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON JULY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WHICH WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
BE ABLE TO INCH SLOWLY INLAND BETWEEN THE BURN SITE AND THE COAST BETWEEN
3 PM AND 6 PM BUT OFFSHORE BLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE FIRE HEADED OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BELOW BACKS THE WINDS TO SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE BURN SITE
WINDS WOULD SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE RETURNING
TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION IN THE EVENING. WINDS CAN ALSO BECOME GUSTY AND
STRONGER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS.
                    PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....50.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....                CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............84  86  87  88  89  90  89  88  87  85  84  83
RH..............80  73  67  64  62  61  63  64  68  71  75  77
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW   S   S   S   S  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   9   9    9  11  12  12  12  12  10   9   7
20 FT WIND GUST.    10  11  12  14  16  16  16  16  14  12  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............6.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 22
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....66.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...VOLKMER
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090706.JDSPI.01/MLB