FNUS73 KEAX 081259 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR JULY 09 RX...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 759 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON JULY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A DECAYING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI HAS SENT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SHIFTED WINDS AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEREFORE BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE EXPECTED INVERSION AROUND 6-7K FT...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL ALSO TEND TO KEEP GUSTINESS DOWN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY BUT SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN THE AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........27 28 29 30 31 30 27 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............84 86 87 88 90 90 89 RH..............53 51 49 47 46 46 47 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 8 9 9 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 17 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........25 26 27 29 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............87 85 81 78 77 76 74 73 72 71 71 70 RH..............49 54 62 68 72 75 79 82 85 88 91 94 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 26 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........39 39 38 37 36 35 34 34 33 32 31 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............70 73 77 81 85 88 91 93 94 95 95 94 RH..............95 86 75 66 60 54 50 48 47 46 47 49 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 10 13 14 16 17 18 18 18 18 17 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...DEROCHE REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090708.JULY0.01/EAX