FNUS75 KMSO 091727
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIRCH CREEK PILE BURN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1127 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON JULY 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FIRE
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO
WARMING INCREASING INSTABILITY ALLOWING MID LEVEL WEST WINDS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE FIRE...THIS
MAY INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING...BUT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZY WINDS AND HIGH ELEVATION
CUMULUS BUILDUP IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH GOOD INSTABILITY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
                    1500 MDT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPVALLEY WINDS 3-5 MPH BECOMING WEST 5-9 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH AFTER 1400 MDT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2100 MDT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6-8 MPH WITH GUST TO 15 MPH IN THE
                    EARLY EVENING BECOMING DOWNVALLEY AROUND 5
                    MPH AFTER 2130 MDT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPVALLEY 2-4 MPH BECOMING WEST 6-9 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...DDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090709.BIRCH.01/MSO