FNUS73 KMQT 121324 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSH CREEK 4 RIVERSIDE DIKE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 915 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0905 EDT ON JULY 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OVER THE BURN SITE BY THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. ALSO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE WEST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND GUST TO NEAR 25 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL... DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO FALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6...OR LOW TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 28 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (787) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1343) BY LATE MORNING. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-5900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5600-7000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING DECREASING TO 4100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........10 20 27 23 17 10 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............58 65 68 69 68 66 RH..............63 49 42 39 38 40 GENERAL WIND....W 6 NW 9 NW 9 W 10 W 8 W 8 GENERAL GUST.... 12 21 20 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.664 1171 1343 1253 1135 699 MIX HGT (FT)....2100 5900 6700 7000 6700 4100 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 6 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 4 TO 9 MPH LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (699) EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN POOR (12). MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........8 16 26 34 29 23 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............64 54 46 45 45 49 RH..............44 65 86 87 88 80 GENERAL WIND....W 6 W 6 SW 5 SW 3 SW 2 W 3 GENERAL GUST....9 VINDX KT-FT/100.457 149 12 55 40 39 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 800 100 300 200 200 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 19 TO 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (431) EARLY...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1617) BY LATE MORNING...AND DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (783) EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7200 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...AND DECREASING TO 3700-4900 FT AGL LATE. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........18 18 23 25 21 15 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 64 68 70 70 70 RH..............67 54 44 39 36 39 GENERAL WIND....NW 6 NW 6 NW 10 NW 10 NW 10 NW 9 GENERAL GUST.... 11 19 22 23 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.163 749 1305 1511 1538 1126 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 5000 7200 6900 6400 4900 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...KF REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090712.MARSH.01/MQT