FNUS73 KEAX 151328 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR JULY 09 2...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 828 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON JULY 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... INCREASING CLOUDS AND A VERY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IT WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WHEN A COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A FRONT SITTING VERY NEAR THE BURN SITE. BY IGNITION TIME...PREDOMINANT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE MORE FROM A NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION...THOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE BURN SITE...AND WINDS MAY BE QUITE VARIABLE AND SHIFTING IN NATURE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT)...BECOMING MORE PARTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN MORE NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTH AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........83 78 72 63 60 56 WEATHER COV.....NONE WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............87 88 88 87 86 83 RH..............55 52 51 52 54 60 20 FT WIND DIR..N NE NE E NE N 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 7 7 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST. HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 2 TO 3 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........66 66 72 78 78 78 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............85 78 74 72 70 68 RH..............59 74 83 88 90 92 20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 5 NE 3 NE 3 NE 3 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........78 72 64 58 55 51 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............68 76 82 85 88 88 RH..............88 68 56 50 46 45 20 FT WIND......N 3 NE 5 E 6 SE 7 E 6 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...OMALLEY REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090715.JULY0.01/EAX