FNAK79 PAFG 171530
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK SLOUGH  347...BLM/ALASKA FIRE SERVICE UYTD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
730 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0708 AKDT ON JULY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER DAY...
THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 30S...LEADING TO MINIMUM RHS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

OVERALL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND HEIGHTS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS LOWER...THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES...AND MINIMUM RHS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND UNSTABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LACK OF MOISTURE...THIS COULD LEAD TO UNFAVORABLE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF ANY WETTING RAINS...OR IF
THERE DOES HAPPEN TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING RIDGE...THERE COULD BE DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME...MODELS LEAN TOWARD ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF BY SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE INTERIOR AND BRING
IN A MUCH WETTER AIRMASS AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 7 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BECOMING WIDELY
                    SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 INCREASING TO 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW 51. HIGH 78. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW 49. HIGH 78. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 8 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW 50. HIGH 79. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...KRYSTON
REQUESTED BY...JAMES HIGGINS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090717.ROCKS.01/AFG