FNUS74 KEPZ 180108
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR MOORE...GNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
708 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1843 MDT ON JULY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE...AND AS A RESULT...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AMPLE ENOUGH FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
WEEKEND.  NORTHERLY FLOW OFTEN LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WHICH HELP ENHANCE/FOCUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE NO EXCEPTION.  THE RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING...REDUCING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...MIN
RH VALUES IN THE GILA WILL REMAIN FAR FROM CRITICAL VALUES.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...FAVORING A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...BUT DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.  SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGHLY LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH... AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER SHOULD A STRONG ENOUGH UPPER DISTURBANCE HELP
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.


$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...LIZ CARVER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WFU
.TAG 20090717.MOORE.02/EPZ